A criticism of the nbers business cycle dating committee is
This recession ended a ten-year period of expansion in the national economy, the longest expansion in U. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions. Development of the American Economy. Second, GDP statistics are sometimes subject to large subsequent revisions, and this makes them an imperfect indicator of current business cycle conditions.
The committee did not announce their determination that the recession ended in November until July 17, As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for oreven though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity though not for two quarters. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
Previously, the committee had determined that the economy reached a peak of activity in July Quarterly series are currently the most reliable European data for our purposes and those around which a reasonable consensus can be achieved. The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction.
The committee thus determined that the a criticism of the nbers business cycle dating committee is ended in March and that an expansion began at that time.
Working Papers & Publications
Economic Fluctuations and Growth. International Finance and Macroeconomics. Why does the Committee not date recessions for individual countries? The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was inwhen the Committee determined that the contraction that began in was not a continuation of the one that began inbut rather a separate full recession.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.
The gray bars represent periods of recession defined by the NBER—payroll employment growth is typically negative during recessions.
Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area? No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole. It also is important to wait long enough to identify the trough in the economy that signifies the beginning of an expansion.
The broadest monthly indicator is employment in the entire economy. Since Octoberthe Committee releases its findings after each meeting — whether or not it has decided to date a trough or a peak.
Moreover, European statistics are of uneven quality, long time series are not available, and data definitions differ across countries and sources. The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.
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